San Antonio opened the series with a convincing 111-98 win over Portland, cashing the 12.5-point number behind a dominant playoff debut from Victor Wembanyama. He finished with 35 points and completely changed the game on both ends, scoring efficiently while protecting the rim and taking away Portland’s comfort in the paint. Even with the final margin, I do not think the game was a total mismatch from start to finish. The Blazers had stretches where they competed well, especially through Deni Avdija, who delivered 30 points and 10 rebounds, while Scoot Henderson provided secondary scoring. The problem for Portland was that they never sustained that level long enough. Their outside shooting let them down, their offense stalled too often, and San Antonio simply had more answers once the game tightened.

What interests me going into Game 2 is the market reaction. The line opened at Spurs -12.5 again, but it has since dipped toward -11.5. That tells me there is at least some respect for Portland’s ability to respond. I understand why. San Antonio is clearly the better team and should still be in control of the series, but asking any playoff favorite to cover a big number in back-to-back games is never as simple as it looks. Portland already showed enough in Game 1 to suggest they can stay competitive for stretches, and if they clean up the turnovers and shoot even a little better from deep, this should be a much tighter game.

I still expect the Spurs to win, but I think the spread is where the value sits. Game 1 was close enough for long stretches to make me believe Portland can hang around, and playoff adjustments usually matter more after the opener than people think. San Antonio may be the superior side, but the margin feels less trustworthy this time. I see the Trail Blazers staying within range for most of the night and doing enough to avoid another blowout.

Boston checks every box to be the obvious side in Game 2. They closed the regular season strong against the spread, they are at home, they have the pedigree, and they just demolished Philadelphia by 32 points in Game 1. But for me, that is exactly where the problem begins. The question is not whether Boston is the better team, because they clearly are. The real question is whether laying this number means I am getting the best of it, and I do not think I am.

Game 1 blowouts have a way of warping the market. They create the impression that the matchup is solved, when in reality playoff series rarely work that cleanly. The losing team adjusts, the urgency rises immediately, and the response in Game 2 is usually far more disciplined than what we saw in the opener. That is the angle I want to trust here.

Philadelphia may have entered the playoffs through the play-in, but that can actually simplify the approach now. The mission is clear: settle the game down, compete harder possession by possession, and avoid letting Boston turn it into another avalanche. That mindset alone often reduces volatility and makes it harder for a favorite to separate by a huge margin again.

Boston’s edge comes from structure, shot quality, and efficiency. They are not a team that needs to play recklessly or chase margin. When the game settles into a more normal playoff rhythm, that style does not always translate into covering a big number in back-to-back spots. After such a one-sided opener, the Celtics feel a little too easy, and when a side starts to feel that easy, I almost always want to look the other way.

I still expect Boston to win, but the value is with Philadelphia and the points.

I’m on Arizona because this is the cleaner baseball edge for me. The Diamondbacks are 13-9 and 7-3 at home, while the White Sox are 8-14 and 5-8 on the road, and I also prefer the pitching setup with Merrill Kelly starting against Sean Burke. Kelly carries a 3.38 ERA, MLB notes he has a 3.28 ERA in 81 home starts with Arizona, and the Diamondbacks came into this stretch having won 10 of their past 13. Chicago do have some punch with Munetaka Murakami swinging well, so I’m not treating it like a free square, but I still trust Arizona more to control the game with the better overall roster and the more reliable home starter.

I’m backing Buffalo because I like the spot more than just the name matchup. This is Game 2 in Buffalo, the Sabres already lead the series 1-0 after that 4-3 comeback win in Game 1, and their overall profile is stronger than it looks at first glance: they finished 50-23-9, went 26-10-5 at home, and were one of the league’s better scoring teams at 3.4 goals per game. Boston are dangerous, but their road record was only 16-16-9, and I think Buffalo’s pace, crowd energy, and transition threat give me the better side again at home. The one reason I’m not going higher is that Boston are healthy and showed in Game 1 that they can still control long stretches, so I’m keeping it solid rather than aggressive.

I like Cartaginés because this is the clearest Costa Rica side edge for me. They’re 4th on 26 points while San Carlos are 7th on 20, Cartaginés have been strong at home with 10 wins in 19, San Carlos have lost 11 of 17 away, and Cartaginés have won 4 of the last 6 meetings. I see a home side that should be able to control field position and make San Carlos spend too much of the match reacting.

I’m still backing Pumas, but I’m lowering the stake because the suspensions matter. They come in with 30 points to Juárez’s 16, they’ve scored at least two goals in each of their last three Liga MX matches, and they just beat Atlético San Luis 2-0. The problem is that Keylor Navas and Adalberto Carrasquilla are suspended, so I’m not treating this like a full-strength Pumas spot. Even so, at home, with the way they’ve been attacking lately, I still think they have the better structure and more ways to control the game.

I like the total more than the side because I don’t trust either defense enough to back cleanly. The matchup profile is open: their head-to-head average is 2.88 goals, both teams have scored in 71% of the H2Hs, and the current preview points to another action-heavy game. Puebla also just got ripped apart 5-0 by Chivas, so I’m expecting Monterrey to find chances, but I still do not trust Monterrey enough defensively to rule Puebla out of scoring too.

I’m not forcing a side here because the table is too tight: Libertad are 12th with 10 points and Guayaquil City are 10th with 12. What I do like is the slower game script: the last two head-to-heads stayed under 2.5 goals, and Guayaquil City have gone under in 6 of their last 9 Serie A matches. I see a low-margin game with more caution than flow.